Work in an automated future
At
this point, we can be certain that the fourth Industrial Revolution will have a
disruptive impact on employment
Disruptive
technologies are now dictating our future, as new innovations increasingly blur
the lines between physical, digital and biological realms. Robots are already
in our operating rooms and fast-food restaurants; we can now use 3D imaging and
stem-cell extraction to grow human bones from a patient’s own cells; and 3D
printing is creating a circular economy in which we can use and then reuse raw
materials.
This
tsunami of technological innovation will continue to change profoundly how we
live and work, and how our societies operate. In what is now called the fourth
Industrial Revolution, technologies that are coming of age—including robotics,
nanotechnology, virtual reality, 3D printing, the Internet of Things,
artificial intelligence, and advanced biology—will converge. And as these
technologies continue to be developed and widely adopted, they will bring about
radical shifts in all disciplines, industries and economies, and in the way
that individuals, companies and societies produce, distribute, consume and
dispose of goods and services.
These
developments have provoked anxious questions about what role humans will play
in a technology-driven world. A 2013 University of Oxford study estimates that
close to half of all jobs in the US could be lost to automation over the next
two decades. On the other hand, economists such as Boston University’s James
Bessen argue that automation often goes hand in hand with the creation of new
jobs. So which is it—new jobs or massive structural unemployment?
At
this point, we can be certain that the fourth Industrial Revolution will have a
disruptive impact on employment, but no one can yet predict the scale of
change. So, before we swallow all of the bad news, we should look at history,
which suggests that technological change more often affects the nature of work,
rather than the opportunity to participate in work itself.
The
first Industrial Revolution moved British manufacturing from people’s homes
into factories, and marked the beginning of hierarchical organization. This
change was often violent, as the famous early-19th century Luddite riots in
England demonstrated. To find work, people were forced to move from rural areas
to industrial centres, and it was during this period that the first labour
movements emerged.
The
second Industrial Revolution ushered in electrification, large-scale
production, and new transportation and communication networks, and created new
professions such as engineering, banking and teaching. This is when middle
classes emerged and began to demand new social policies and an increased role
for government.
During
the third Industrial Revolution, modes of production were further automated by
electronics and by information and communication technology, with many human
jobs moving from manufacturing into services. When automated teller machines
(ATMs) arrived in the 1970s, it was initially assumed that they would be a
disaster for workers in retail banking. And yet the number of bank branch jobs
actually increased over time as costs fell. The nature of the job had changed:
It became less transactional and more focused on customer service.
Disruption
accompanied each previous Industrial Revolution, and the fourth will be no
different. But if we keep in mind the lessons of history, we can manage the
change. For starters, we need to focus on skills, and not just on the specific
jobs that will appear or disappear. If we determine which skill sets we will
need, we can educate and train the human workforce to leverage all the new
opportunities that technology creates. Human-resources departments, educational
institutions and governments should lead the charge on this effort.
Second,
past experience has repeatedly shown that disadvantaged classes must be
protected; workers who are vulnerable to being displaced by technology must
have the time and means to adjust. As we saw in 2016, there can be far-reaching
consequences when vast inequalities of opportunities and outcomes lead people
to believe that they have no future.
Last
but not least, to ensure that the fourth Industrial Revolution translates into
economic growth and bears fruit for all, we must work together to create new
regulatory ecosystems. Governments will have a crucial role to play, but
business and civil-society leaders will also need to collaborate with
governments to determine the appropriate regulations and standards for new
technologies and industries.
I
am under no illusions that this will be easy. Politics, not technology, will
determine the pace of change, and implementing the necessary reforms will be
hard, slow work, particularly in democracies. It will require a mix of
forward-looking policymaking, agile regulatory frameworks, and, above all,
effective partnerships across organizational and national boundaries. A good model
to keep in mind is Denmark’s “flexicurity” system, in which a flexible labour
market is paired with a social safety net that includes training and reskilling
services for all citizens.
Technology
may be advancing rapidly, but it will not cause time itself to collapse. The
momentous changes ahead will take place over many decades, not as a big bang.
Individuals, companies and societies do have time to adjust; but there is no
time for delay. Creating a future in which all can benefit must start now. ©2017/Project
Syndicate
Regards
Pralhad
Jadhav
Senior
Manager @ Library
Khaitan & Co
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